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Yawn. Democrats have outperformed polls by something like 11 points nationally since Jan 6, 2021. Only MAGA and boomer take polls.
Trump also claims Minnesota is in play. And New Jersey.
And some of y’all have a meltdown in here every couple weeks. Like, hit up your doctor and get on some anti-depressant / anxiety medication. Shit only costs like $10 for a 90 day refill.
Yawn. Democrats have outperformed polls by something like 11 points nationally since Jan 6, 2021. Only MAGA and boomer take polls.
Trump also claims Minnesota is in play. And New Jersey.
And some of y’all have a meltdown in here every couple weeks. Like, hit up your doctor and get on some anti-depressant / anxiety medication. Shit only costs like $10 for a 90 day refill.
I generally agree but the problem with the aforementioned poll is that it has democrats winning the senate races in all the swing states while Biden loses. It's not as simple as "democrats outperform polls, don't worry."
Yawn. Democrats have outperformed polls by something like 11 points nationally since Jan 6, 2021. Only MAGA and boomer take polls.
Trump also claims Minnesota is in play. And New Jersey.
And some of y’all have a meltdown in here every couple weeks. Like, hit up your doctor and get on some anti-depressant / anxiety medication. Shit only costs like $10 for a 90 day refill.
I generally agree but the problem with the aforementioned poll is that it has democrats winning the senate races in all the swing states while Biden loses. It's not as simple as "democrats outperform polls, don't worry."
Shame on Crab Mech from sharing a retweet where the OG tweet also didn’t have the source material. Anyway, the polls were registered voters (Biden was within 11 of all). They bury that among likely voters, it’s actually closer with Biden actually leading.
Also, these results are essentially unchanged from the last time they did this same polling last November. That’s from the article. So based on their own polling Biden hasn’t seen support erode since November…
Last Edit: May 13, 2024 14:37:07 GMT -5 by ZIG - Back to Top
I generally agree but the problem with the aforementioned poll is that it has democrats winning the senate races in all the swing states while Biden loses. It's not as simple as "democrats outperform polls, don't worry."
Shame on Crab Mech from sharing a retweet where the OG tweet also didn’t have the source material. Anyway, the polls were registered voters (Biden was within 11 of all). They bury that among likely voters, it’s actually closer with Biden actually leading.
Also, these results are essentially unchanged from the last time they did this same polling last November. That’s from the article. So based on their own polling Biden hasn’t seen support erode since November…
Better among likely voters yes, though I believe the only swing state Biden leads among LV in that poll was Wisconsin. But the issue remains that he's underperforming democratic senators from the same states, and that is a real and meaningful issue and one that might be difficult to correct. Still, the sky is not falling, and there is a ton of time, and polls change.
Huh? How many election cycles with presidential-level turnout have there been in that time?
Since Roe v Wade was overturned in 2022, Democrats have outperformed polling, significantly. Again by 11 percentage points. And you know, an insurrection.
Huh? How many election cycles with presidential-level turnout have there been in that time?
Since Roe v Wade was overturned in 2022, Democrats have outperformed polling, significantly. Again by 11 percentage points. And you know, an insurrection.
I think looking at off-cycle and special elections and extrapolating out too much is a risky perspective. Presidential elections are different, especially when these are the candidates. Trump turns out his party; they don't care as much if they're not voting for him. I hope this presidential election follows the same pattern as the midterms and specials but I'm not optimistic for the same kind of spread.
Most of these polls aren't worth jack shit, especially when you look at the details behind the curtain (who is paying for them, how old/regurgitated they are, sample size, etc.).
Like Zig has stated, Democrats have been outperforming time and time again ever since Roe v. Wade was axed, and even before that (to a smaller extent), since Jan. 6th went down.
And lo and behold, it's looking increasingly likely that Trump is going to get his ass handed to him in the NY Election Interference/Hush Money case. There's data out there that shows if he's found guilty, he's estimated to lose around 25% of his voters. Which would mean he will lose in a huge fucking landslide this November.
As always, lots of new variables/factors can come into play between now and November, but if things remain as they are, Trump is toast...And rightfully fucking so.
Most of these polls aren't worth jack shit, especially when you look at the details behind the curtain (who is paying for them, how old/regurgitated they are, sample size, etc.).
Like Zig has stated, Democrats have been outperforming time and time again ever since Roe v. Wade was axed, and even before that (to a smaller extent), since Jan. 6th went down.
And lo and behold, it's looking increasingly likely that Trump is going to get his ass handed to him in the NY Election Interference/Hush Money case. There's data out there that shows if he's found guilty, he's estimated to lose around 25% of his voters. Which would mean he will lose in a huge fucking landslide this November.
As always, lots of new variables/factors can come into play between now and November, but if things remain as they are, Trump is toast...And rightfully fucking so.
It's a bit odd to say polls aren't worth jack shit, then refer to data suggesting he'll lose 25% of his voters if he's found guilty...which is it? And that data is weak as fuck. The most recent one I'm aware of, from Ipsos, says that 50% of the country thinks he's guilty already (incidentally: 50% of the country hates him, too!) and 32% of independents would be "less likely to support him" if found guilty (incidentally: 59% of independents already don't support him, 45% of whom support Biden and the rest undecided!). 9% of republicans say they'd be less likely to support him (incidentally: that's about where Biden polls among republicans!)
So basically: people who already don't support him will be less likely to support him. That's really all those polls say, unless you can find me polling of people who say today they would vote for Trump but would change that vote if he's found guilty. I really don't think that verdict will make much of a difference and could in fact energize his base (though really I think it'll energize both bases either way).
Post by itrainmonkeys on May 13, 2024 19:08:56 GMT -5
Lol Bill Maher is such a a smug, condescending fuckhead and he repeatedly pats himself on the back and gets defensive here over the slightest push back or disagreement.
Burr just slightly disagreed that the student protests were "pro-Hamas" and then gave a look when Bill said that supporting Palestine is the same cause as supporting Hamas. Maher couldn't handle it and started putting words into Burrs mouth and acting like he has all the answers.
Bill Maher sucks so hard. Bill Burr continues to be the realest person in comedy and I am constantly pleased at him on podcasts and in TV interviews where he doesn't take bait or put up with bullshit from the people talking. He speaks his mind a lot like so many other "comedians" wish they could. Love burr
Post by potentpotables on May 13, 2024 19:39:00 GMT -5
In the PA poll, NYT has Philly going for Biden 54-30 when it went 81-18 in 2020. That would be an historic collapse in the black vote in Philly. I'm skeptical.
Also has the Philly collar counties right of where they were in 2020 and every election since then they've moved left.
I'm not saying who's winning. I just wouldn't make those assumptions about PA.
Post by kingvamp999wrld on May 13, 2024 19:45:23 GMT -5
FWIW I've never been polled but if I was polled (me, a Leftist who hates but will vote for Biden) would probably lie to a pollster and and say I'm a undecided Democrat
Post by abefroman1 on May 13, 2024 20:39:45 GMT -5
I have nothing to base this on other than the hypothesis that time is a flat circle, but the polls underestimating Democrat voters in 2024 would be full circle from 2016 (with accurate 2020 polls sandwiched in the middle)
Most of these polls aren't worth jack shit, especially when you look at the details behind the curtain (who is paying for them, how old/regurgitated they are, sample size, etc.).
Like Zig has stated, Democrats have been outperforming time and time again ever since Roe v. Wade was axed, and even before that (to a smaller extent), since Jan. 6th went down.
And lo and behold, it's looking increasingly likely that Trump is going to get his ass handed to him in the NY Election Interference/Hush Money case. There's data out there that shows if he's found guilty, he's estimated to lose around 25% of his voters. Which would mean he will lose in a huge fucking landslide this November.
As always, lots of new variables/factors can come into play between now and November, but if things remain as they are, Trump is toast...And rightfully fucking so.
It's a bit odd to say polls aren't worth jack shit, then refer to data suggesting he'll lose 25% of his voters if he's found guilty...which is it? And that data is weak as fuck. The most recent one I'm aware of, from Ipsos, says that 50% of the country thinks he's guilty already (incidentally: 50% of the country hates him, too!) and 32% of independents would be "less likely to support him" if found guilty (incidentally: 59% of independents already don't support him, 45% of whom support Biden and the rest undecided!). 9% of republicans say they'd be less likely to support him (incidentally: that's about where Biden polls among republicans!)
So basically: people who already don't support him will be less likely to support him. That's really all those polls say, unless you can find me polling of people who say today they would vote for Trump but would change that vote if he's found guilty. I really don't think that verdict will make much of a difference and could in fact energize his base (though really I think it'll energize both bases either way).
Good point, I'm sure that 25% number is based on polling and not some other means of getting that data. So in the end, we can just speculate using the information at hand.
My stance though is that the media is really trying to push (on both sides) just how close this presidential race will be. That's their position, to keep everyone on the edge of their seats at all times, despite what the recent voting results and trends have been.
Now with Trump, if he is found guilty, I have no doubt it'll energize his super hardcore base. But at the same time, I believe it will alienate some voters that have still been on the fence to for him. I mean this is some twisted historical shit - imagine having a nominee on the ballot for Presidency, who is a convicted felon. Yeah he'll no doubt pursue appeals and most likely won't be incarcerated while that process plays out (if he even gets jail time) through November, but this will definitely be a big hit on his chances of winning.
It's a bit odd to say polls aren't worth jack shit, then refer to data suggesting he'll lose 25% of his voters if he's found guilty...which is it? And that data is weak as fuck. The most recent one I'm aware of, from Ipsos, says that 50% of the country thinks he's guilty already (incidentally: 50% of the country hates him, too!) and 32% of independents would be "less likely to support him" if found guilty (incidentally: 59% of independents already don't support him, 45% of whom support Biden and the rest undecided!). 9% of republicans say they'd be less likely to support him (incidentally: that's about where Biden polls among republicans!)
So basically: people who already don't support him will be less likely to support him. That's really all those polls say, unless you can find me polling of people who say today they would vote for Trump but would change that vote if he's found guilty. I really don't think that verdict will make much of a difference and could in fact energize his base (though really I think it'll energize both bases either way).
Good point, I'm sure that 25% number is based on polling and not some other means of getting that data. So in the end, we can just speculate using the information at hand.
My stance though is that the media is really trying to push (on both sides) just how close this presidential race will be. That's their position, to keep everyone on the edge of their seats at all times, despite what the recent voting results and trends have been.
Now with Trump, if he is found guilty, I have no doubt it'll energize his super hardcore base. But at the same time, I believe it will alienate some voters that have still been on the fence to for him. I mean this is some twisted historical shit - imagine having a nominee on the ballot for Presidency, who is a convicted felon. Yeah he'll no doubt pursue appeals and most likely won't be incarcerated while that process plays out (if he even gets jail time) through November, but this will definitely be a big hit on his chances of winning.
So does he drop out of the race if he gets convicted (in one or more cases if they have any other trials)? I don't think he'd want to be considered a big loser because of his pride issues. But he'd basically just f over the GOP who he already doesn't care about except that's where his support mostly comes from. I don't know how it would work in states that already have their ballots set, but you'd think they'd allow one of the major parties to switch a candidate if that candidate didn't run in the presidential election. But I don't know.
Good point, I'm sure that 25% number is based on polling and not some other means of getting that data. So in the end, we can just speculate using the information at hand.
My stance though is that the media is really trying to push (on both sides) just how close this presidential race will be. That's their position, to keep everyone on the edge of their seats at all times, despite what the recent voting results and trends have been.
Now with Trump, if he is found guilty, I have no doubt it'll energize his super hardcore base. But at the same time, I believe it will alienate some voters that have still been on the fence to for him. I mean this is some twisted historical shit - imagine having a nominee on the ballot for Presidency, who is a convicted felon. Yeah he'll no doubt pursue appeals and most likely won't be incarcerated while that process plays out (if he even gets jail time) through November, but this will definitely be a big hit on his chances of winning.
So does he drop out of the race if he gets convicted (in one or more cases if they have any other trials)? I don't think he'd want to be considered a big loser because of his pride issues. But he'd basically just f over the GOP who he already doesn't care about except that's where his support mostly comes from. I don't know how it would work in states that already have their ballots set, but you'd think they'd allow one of the major parties to switch a candidate if that candidate didn't run in the presidential election. But I don't know.
It's pretty unlikely he'd get jail time even if found guilty on all counts. First time offender, non-violent offenses, and these kinds of charges as it is only result in prison time about 1 in every 10 cases. Most legal analysts don't expect it. Many if not most were surprised he was charged in the first place (even if he's guilty).
The classified documents case is the one that would really get him, and luckily for him, his appointee Judge is doing everything she can to kill it.
Pretty sure the J6 case is as serious as the classified documents case when it comes to potential jail time, but yeah SCOTUS will make sure he doesn't stand trial in either case before the election.
This trial will have little to no effect on the election regardless of outcome. Biden is going to lose by a big electoral margin unless he has some huge wins soon.
The democrats need to move on to someone else ASAP if they want to win.
Pretty sure the J6 case is as serious as the classified documents case when it comes to potential jail time, but yeah SCOTUS will make sure he doesn't stand trial in either case before the election.
He also faces significant consequences in the Georgia election tampering case. Right now its all mucked up in appeal mode to remove Fani from the case. But eventually that will be resolved, and then it's game on there too.
This trial will have little to no effect on the election regardless of outcome. Biden is going to lose by a big electoral margin unless he has some huge wins soon.
The democrats need to move on to someone else ASAP if they want to win.
Pretty sure the J6 case is as serious as the classified documents case when it comes to potential jail time, but yeah SCOTUS will make sure he doesn't stand trial in either case before the election.
It’s more that the documents cases is the most likely to go against him; it’s pretty cut and dry, and it happened after he became a private citizen. The GA case was good but has gotten all mucked up by Willis, so who knows. The J6 case is definitely as serious but I’m not sure the case itself is as strong as in the other two, though it’s been a minute since I read up on it.
In the PA poll, NYT has Philly going for Biden 54-30 when it went 81-18 in 2020. That would be an historic collapse in the black vote in Philly. I'm skeptical.
Also has the Philly collar counties right of where they were in 2020 and every election since then they've moved left.
I'm not saying who's winning. I just wouldn't make those assumptions about PA.
Lots of weird stuff in those cross tabs. I also find it very hard to believe Trump ultimately splits the 18-29 year old vote with Biden like the latest polls say. Conversely the fact Biden has a small lead in Michigan was pretty surprising to me.
Right now Trump is basically up one point in Wisconsin and three in Pennsylvania. That’s it. He needs to get out of the courtroom and back on the trail running his mouth full time and hopefully that lead evaporates. More Americans probably know about his affair with Stormy than about his position on Gaza or abortion and that’s not helpful to the cause right now.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on May 14, 2024 19:54:06 GMT -5
The north Georgia crosstab in the NYT poll is a little funky even without 3rd parties. It's soft on Trump but just past the margin of error. Biden is about where I'd expect him. Numbers are down but that's made up with time and lack of options. RFK Jr. isn't getting 7% of the vote here. That's not happening. People say that shit about the Libertarian candidate every time and it ends up at like 1-2%. So within MoE. Which isn't nothing and could turn a close election but these are kooky Right wing types. They'll end up with the GOP.
For what it's worth this part of the state is pretty damn accurate. Right about where this area landed in the last 3 Presidential elections. Granted this is likely the easiest part of the state to poll. About like asking a dog if it's wants a steak off the grill.
What matters for north Georgia is turnout. We are a big part of the GOP firewall. 5000 more people voted GOP in 2020 then in 2024, just in my shitty county. The base shows up again and Biden's numbers are down with the youth. It's over. This is why smaller polling issues like Gaza matter. You alienate the youth and activist types, not only do you lose their vote, you lose feet on the ground doing GOTV shit.
Like I preached in 2020. Alienating all those kids from BLM that went out all over Atlanta turning the tide for that election was stupid as shit. But it doesn't matter. The Dems want the suburbanites with no loyalty to them.
Post by abefroman1 on May 14, 2024 20:43:37 GMT -5
The democrats have stepped so far right trying to win over Lincoln Project types and Haley voters. Unfortunately the Lincoln Project types only exist by the dozens, and Haley voters will have no problem voting for Trump once they are in the booth alone.
The democrats have stepped so far right trying to win over Lincoln Project types and Haley voters. Unfortunately the Lincoln Project types only exist by the dozens, and Haley voters will have no problem voting for Trump once they are in the booth alone.