Post by kikosanchez on Aug 24, 2012 23:54:25 GMT -5
One last thing, Roo on day 4 you voted for me then said you'd go back and reread the thread and give thoughts, which you never did. Could you please give a more elaborate post on your thought process? I believe Viking and I have done our part.
Overconfidence is Round one is a common new player trait. I had that issue myself in the first game, and actually, that is how I got in the habit of voting SFA and then moving off of him. It is good luck, but also a reminder to not get too tied to one theory. I actually meant the comment as a compliment if you are the mafia member for lasting this long. It has nothing to do with roo.
Do I think I am right here, yes. I am sure I am right? No. There is not way to be sure unless you are mafia. Also, as a tip, the bet is a mafia tradition. I think the best one so far was LLL offering to go topless and kiss all the players if she was wrong in my first game. Roo I believe still owes 1000 beers to people, and I do as well.
With that in mind, if one of us now switches, we fall into the trap. It is why I mentioned the logic puzzle to start Day 4. Here is the simple version we are left with on Day 5:
As you said, you have essentially built a prisoner's dilemma. So now, if I switch, roo will make a bet as well. Add to that, you didn't vote, and you essentially are saying I pick whoever still wants to kill me, in effect buying a vote to remain on the winning side.
At this point, I would love to hear from roo as well, but for now, I want to leave my vote where it is.
*modified to fix the clip. I am watching that movie tonight, so I had to include it!
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 0:51:51 GMT -5
Yes, I openly admitted I created a tripwire for someone, because it becomes 50/50 for me, which is as good as it will get for me at this point.
It quite sucks if that is mafia tradition. But while 1,000 beers or going topless are quite unattainable or unverifiable, erasing my account is neither. I'm also curious as to how often those people were town or mafia. Once again, will anyone accept the offer of deleting their account given they are lying? I am more than happy to make this pact because I am not lying, I am simply town.
Anyway, if you are town and re-read my long post above you will see an easter egg that will show my "townness". I'll let this go for the night as well. Whoever is town, please reTHINK your position. I have been clear and open this entire thread, even going so far as to point out to Jimmy that his chronology was incorrect and just up above correcting myself (twice) just to hope and get everything out in the open so townies can see things more clearly.
"With that in mind, if one of us now switches, we fall into the trap"
Yup, either a righteous trap or an evil one. Are you talking a lot to make sure roo doesn't switch or are you talking to solidify your position? I'm glad you are at least talking this game, though. I'm honestly not sure, but I'd love to hear more from Roo.
Please townie, recognize a fellow member...I've laid my account on the line for your trust. Not some absurd thing, just my account.
It is a roughly 50/50% split townie / mafia. And I think the last time someone bet there account, they were mafia (Somewhere in the low 40's game).
The problem for me is that you admit to trying to trap us, when I know I am, and I think roo may be a townie. You even went as far as asking for the kill vote by asking one of us, does not matter which, into a trap.
To answer your question, I always talk through what I am thinking. It makes it easier for people to know what I am, and helps solidify my position. Obviously, if roo takes your bait, I believe the townies will lose. The exception would be if roo is mafia and you are a townie.
At this point, what makes me most uncomfortable with switching is that if you really were a townie, you would have an opinion on who you think is mafia and vote for that person, instead of voting with whoever you convince to switch to you. It makes me more uncomfortable than roo not talking, because he came out and took a position instead of trying to get power.
As I read it over this morning, that is what struck me the most.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 8:48:43 GMT -5
I never tried to "get power" until I had two votes on me. Yes, I am OPENLY admitting that I need someone to switch their vote. You keep calling it a "trap" it is only a trap if it is mafia. I am just trying to get one of you to switch, so we at least have a chance. I ALREADY have tried to analyze it and I'm left unsure, so that is why I'm just wanting town to come out and save us. I honestly think there are equal parts going against and for each of you. But below I am giving town a tool to show who is and isn't town.
the easter egg. Viking didn't mention it. ROO do you see it?? Please town, look at the 8th post on this game, my first long one. Your answer is in it.
I didnt mention it, because I didn't find it. As for calling what you are doing a trap, you have to realize that from my position, it looks like one, since I think it is likely you are mafia. However, in the interest of hearing what you have to say aside from just getting someone to vote with you at this point,
Viking >> Null
Not saying I am going to believe you, but I will give you the shot to explain a theory beyond someone believe me. I have to run out until this afternoon, but will check on my phone.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 9:17:59 GMT -5
As I said above, I don't have a great analysis, but nor do either of you. As stated before, Roonectar voted me flat out in day 4 and then said he'd go back, read, and come back with more, which he never did. He again voted me flat out again in this round with no real substance behind it. You have at least written some things out, but it still doesn't seem clear to you either when it comes to Roo and I.
My argument against Roo would be that SFA, the inspector, was wary of him and he's been quiet. Also, given you are not mafia, he balanced the first round votes along with Hak and MC. On the other side, he volunteered himself into a runoff on day 4 which Jimmy thought was quite telling of him being town, you also said he's done that before and he was town.
My argument against you is that SFA, the inspector, was wary of you as well. You've been quite talkative, which I at least enjoy, but you have also been extremely without confidence, ie never getting tied to anyone and always offering reservations on your votes. This is a wonderful town AND mafia strategy. Most any mafia strategy includes staying in the middle and never being overconfident or leading a vote toward or against someone. I honestly don't know if you're playing town or mafia well. On the other hand, you've called out mafia more than once.
So, in the end, either you or Roo made a nice play or two to make it seem you can't be mafia and whoever is mafia I will say is playing it quite well. Either Roo has played it the same as Hak and MC and is quiet or Viking you are being more talkative while keeping neutral in every way. This is why I can't come up with a convincing argument either way.
I would love to hear from Roo really. I' like to see if he sees the easter egg. If neither of you admit to seeing it, I will post it clearly, though that will give away the town's tool from my pov.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 10:21:28 GMT -5
One thing I forgot in my defense was the last round. It was Roo 2, Me 2, LD 1. Roo in fact voted for me outright that round too and even noted his suspicion of me. I had the deciding vote and all I had to do was chop Roo and guarantee my survival. I didn't like it much because I didn't feel there was much evidence against Roo, so I laid off the vote and let you everyone decide and think on it some more. How could I, as mafia, ever pass up a sure thing like that? There are such things as meta-game, but they really never override a sure play to survive. This, along with my admittedly outspoken defense of Phi, and clearing up Jimmy's chronological mistake, hopefully prove to whoever is town that I have gone out of my way and put myself "out there" and in harm's way this game to try and do what's best for town (even if I've been wrong some of the times).
If this isn't convincing to you town, surely the easter egg is the nail in the coffin. It's really the last tool I have to save town, but it is surely a 100% lock.
Just curious how you both have found me to be neutral. In day 1, accusing Phi (and being wrong) got me tossed in the runoff and almost killed. This tends to make one a bit gunshy once the inspector comes out and proves them wrong.
In day two, prior to SFA coming out, I said it was between you two, MC, and Hakuna, which put a giant target on my back the rest of the game. Then after SFA came out and said he thought I was suspicious, I stated I will be more reserved for the rest of the game, which I have been. Even after SFA said he no longer thought I was guilty, I continued to be reserved to our detriment.
As I admitted at the beginning of this round, I should not have let Jimmy sway me to LD. Instead, I should have pushed to kill one, then the next one of the two of you, since we would be left with near 100% odds of winning instead of this 50/50 land we live in now. That is why I have been much more vocal this round.
Also, Kiko, I think you are confusing neutrality with being quietly observant as you called out SFA for the same thing, which was one of the things that led him to come out.
Kiko, if you are referring to your actual 8th post asking what null meant, new mafia have done that in the past. Regardless, I appreciate you posting your thoughts. If that is the easter egg, I do not think it sways me one way or another, and I think the recent dialog is much more enlightening.
Roo, you bit really hard on that neutrality piece. Also, I find the timing of your vote switch to be interesting.
I do not know if you actually think I am mafia or if you are just switching to quietly make sure you are on the side with 2 votes, but as I have said all game, your timing has been very strange.
Since this round will probably be open to Monday, I am going to walk away and enjoy my birthday weekend with my family a bit, but whichever of you is a townie, I encourage you to look through the thread and help find the pattern here.
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 20:31:22 GMT -5
No Viking, I meant the 8th overall post on this page. It is by me and begins "Well I may have not" The easter egg is not some interpretive puzzle or anything, it is a few words that Town should recognize quite easily. Happy Birthday Vike.
Thank you both for the birthday wishes. Tomorrow is my birthday and since I will be racing in the morning on a super speedway, I will not be back until the evening.
Kiko, the Easter Egg confused the hell out of me. No worries though. I think you confused everyone on the first page as well if I remember right from reading the thread over a few times earlier today. I will check in via cell probably in the afternoon tomorrow, but cannot really focus until the evening.
I honestly feel like I blew this, since I got talked out of voting for one then the other in day 4, and now I am having a tough time choosing which of you is a townie, and which is mafia. Hopefully with increasing age comes increasing wisdom. If not, adrenaline works great at helping me focus as well!
Post by kikosanchez on Aug 25, 2012 23:54:16 GMT -5
Sorry, I originally pointed toward the egg by saying "Anyway, if you are town and re-read my long post above you will see an easter egg that will show my "townness"" which I thought was pretty clear, but I'm assuming no one read that or took much notice at the time. Not to worry, the situation with the egg is in a bit of limbo right now. I deleted it thinking it was illegal but it turned out not to be. I'm waiting to see to what degree I can talk about what happened. I will just post tomorrow about it.
Good luck on the racetrack, remember to turn left.
10) AKA The kdogg Rule: There will be no sharing of role PMs inside the thread or outside for the purpose of disclosing your role to another player. This also goes for password sharing. Common sense should be used, no discussion of your roles, except between Mafia, outside the thread - EVER.
This means the physical PM sent by the ref to the player may not be shared - as in screen printed, cut and paste, linked, etc etc. No one other than the receiving player is allowed to see the actual PM sent by the ref.
This rule does not prevent players from posting - typing - that my pm said 'blah blah blah'. Players rather routinely post/type that 'My PM said I am a townie' and this is not considered a rule infraction.