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RDK why are you so sure? I noticed you said that when EAP was "really in trouble" that the votes switched but I feel like everyone was ready for this round to end and EAP to be gone until she nulled her vote, which made me go back and re-think things, and it made me kind of think EAP is innocent. I don't think she did anything that could be deemed "suspicious" until she was in the lead for the runoff without having really even said anything. She then started to kind of get annoyed with a ton of people voting to her for like no reason, other than that she was staying quiet like she did two games ago.
I'm not saying you didn't give any other reason but these past few pages have been really confusing and we've kind of just been arguing in circles, which is why I just want this round to be over.
btw bacon I just turned my sigs back on today... that pancake pig is just fantastic.
oh yeah the 3 most outspoken people are mafia? maybe we can just clearly see that you are by far the most likely to be mafia in this runoff. I have given way more reasons than just saying "EAP IS MAFIA" but nice try.
Can you say your reasons again then, I must have missed those.
And I didn't say the three of you were mafia, just that the three of you seem so sure of everything and that is weird to me.
You know whats even funnier? How you keep putting words in my mouth about how sure I am that you are mafia. It's actually kind of suspicious how defensive you are about me saying there is a 3/10 chance you are mafia.
If you vote for me then that means you think I am mafia??? Am I missing something???
Remember guys, the voting WILL end at 9pm EST tonight. All NULL votes should place a new vote by then, otherwise the vote will stand without your vote.
oh yeah the 3 most outspoken people are mafia? maybe we can just clearly see that you are by far the most likely to be mafia in this runoff. I have given way more reasons than just saying "EAP IS MAFIA" but nice try.
Can you say your reasons again then, I must have missed those.
And I didn't say the three of you were mafia, just that the three of you seem so sure of everything and that is weird to me.
How many different ways do I have to say I'm not sure you are mafia. You are however the most suspicious person in this run-off to me. That said If I could vote for anyone right now it would be SFA.
I am done posting until tonight. I would like for those who are voting for CST/Viking to have a chance to express their opinions. All I have to say for now is: READ.
Remember guys, the voting WILL end at 9pm EST tonight. All NULL votes should place a new vote by then, otherwise the vote will stand without your vote.
I'm not voting until I hear from at least SFA even if that means my vote not counting (not like it matters). Of course both SFA and Sarah hide behind hidden log-in
Yeah, that doesn't look at ALL like you're trying to change your vote to go along with popular opinion... throughout ALL of this you've kept your vote on viking but now that things are starting to move back towards EAP, suddenly you have a change of heart.
I won't be changing my vote again, I don't think. I've gone back and forth between the two and I just find very little suspicious about EAP. I honestly find the people who are SO adamant about EAP a little suspicious, because she was pretty silent till people started slinging accusations her way.
Yeah, that doesn't look at ALL like you're trying to change your vote to go along with popular opinion... throughout ALL of this you've kept your vote on viking but now that things are starting to move back towards EAP, suddenly you have a change of heart.
I won't be changing my vote again, I don't think. I've gone back and forth between the two and I just find very little suspicious about EAP. I honestly find the people who are SO adamant about EAP a little suspicious, because she was pretty silent till people started slinging accusations her way.
Like I said I haven't had time to read into this lately. NOW that I have gotten to read it all I can form my own opinion. I kept my vote on my partner until I was able to fully read and thats suspicious? Think what you want.
3 - RDK is going to be accused of being mafia with me because he is on the same track I am right now. I think it is likely that EAP is mafia. I also think it is likely that one of the first people to believe her story is too, which would mean CMP. As far as Nic, he was my voting partner to start, so I can't say one way or another. He has been very quiet. If I had to pick a 3rd, I would pick SFA as the one hiding. It will be someone who voted for one of the other 2 in order to hide and more likely someone who voted for CSTNZ. SFA is very experienced, and let CSTNZ run trying to protect him simiilar to what Mike D did to me last game. It could be sarah too, since the "i'm sick" or "i'm busy" defense has been used before to hide mafia, but I think it is more likely that is was SFA
4 - Remember that based on how Phi did the selections, Nic had the greatest odds, SFA had the second greatest. Duddits was the true nuetral. Everyone after had declining odds. This does not mean that they are automatically guilt. Just a lot more likely to be mafia.
So all of a sudden that small probability = "a lot more likely". And why would you be ok with being out? That seems like something you would never hear from a townie, especially one who says they take this game seriously and really wants to win. It's just not adding up for me.
The reason I quoted point 3 from you up there, is to show how much you're throwing around every other name out there to try and get some focus off you. (In my eyes. As you said, you've read up heavily on this game, so you'd certainly know that lobbing other names up in the air can help take attention away from you.)
Also, RDK, you ignored my question on page 7...again.
this is actually not true, but thanks for skewing the facts.....
i switched from viking BEFORE cmp put "focus" on viking. the only thing cmp did was see that the two of them were ganging up on me.
One last thing before I leave for work. RDK, I don't believe you ever responded to this...just a small gap in your theory, but I'd like to hear your reasoning.
And the only thing that has seemed to remain constant this round, is RDK and Viking leaving each other alone, or encouraging others to switch off one another.
This is my two cents, and the reason my vote is staying the same.
I mean the way I see it is the people who would benefit most from another runoff is the Mafia. Theres no facts that are going to come out from another runoff. We've been analyzing the same peoples posts for 4 days and ten pages. The only thing that will happen with another runoff is that the mafia will be able to take more things and twist them around..
I think the best thing for the townies is to move on and make a final decision, and look at next rounds votings patterns. Theres nothing we will learn from continuing to analyze these first round posts. It's looking like everyone is moving back towards EAP so if that is what you guys think (I personally think the Mafia is just mucking up the proceedings to slow things down and add more confusion) then go for it, but I really don't think we need a runoff between viking and EAP.
Bacon that is so whack. You guys have been all over me and answered NOTHING ANYONE HAS ASKED YOU.
Nic, what have I exactly done to change your mind. You realize at this point it looks extremely likely you are trying to save Viking. Please ask me any questions you have. So you not think it is weird RDK and bacon have been all over me like crazy but not questioned Viking or constanza at all??? Please only vote for me if you really believe I am guilty. I don't think you do.
I'd also like to appeal to duddits. You said so yourself, I am not that suspicious. Please reconsider.
And to the rest of you: bacon obviously seems to think he is in charge here, so I'd be careful. He's making all the last votes and trying to tell the inspector "who to ask about".
Also, RDK, you ignored my question on page 7...again.
One last thing before I leave for work. RDK, I don't believe you ever responded to this...just a small gap in your theory, but I'd like to hear your reasoning.
And the only thing that has seemed to remain constant this round, is RDK and Viking leaving each other alone, or encouraging others to switch off one another. [/quote]
Sorry for losing your post in the 10 pages so thanks for bringing it back up. You are correct EAP voted for viking before you laid into him. I still believe that ties you 2 together so I stick by what I said.
and eap what the hell do you want me to answer? I have only seen 1 question from you and that was about bacon asking for me to be inspected. I have already addressed that.
CMP, I'm not in the runoff so I don't know what you mean by me and viking leaving each other alone? I have asked time and time again for someone to convince me of some suspicion against Viking or CSTNZ but I have yet to see anything besides EAP saying she isn't mafia. I don't see anything against either of them and I have read through multiple times. I have mentioned viking directly in past posts because he is the one in danger of getting voted off; not CSTNZ. I believe they are both townies and would much rather EAP be voted off than either.
It is not up to me though so I will just sincerely ask every townie to read through and make what you feel is the best decision.
Also I thought you said you weren't going to post anymore. Guess that didn't last long.
Well, I was apparently ignoring so many questions so I decided to go ahead and post. You've yet to tell me which question(s) this is? I mean I haven't answered "NOTHING ANYONE HAS ASKED YOU." so please feel free to enlighten me.
My vote is final. I'm done explaining why I think you are suspicious. If people don't think you are moreso than CSTNZ/viking, then there isn't anything I can do about it at this point.
Viking's long post about being ready to die sounds more like Mafia than EAP fighting to stay alive. As soon as the votes started to shift towards Viking he seemed to lessen his fight in the runoff to stay alive. His defense is that he has provided nothing but facts, however a Mafia can do just the same.
Also the more I think about it, EAP isn't throwing names around, which is normally something Mafia would do in a subtle manner to take the spotlight off of them and attempt to place it on someone else. Mafia tend to want to point the finger elsewhere, whereas a Townie will want to defend themself against being or doing something suspicious and plea their honesty as being a Townie.
So in essence I read EAP doing nothing but defend herself in the runoff while not trying to put pressure on any one other player (townie trend) and viking first pointing to several different possible Mafia and then in essence laying down on his own sword when the votes sway towards him.
The one game where I was Mafia and was in the runoff I did the same thing. I was ready to go out so as to protect the other two Mafia.
I am going to apologize in advance for the length of this post. There have been a few questions asked that I think need responses, especially since EAP keeps screaming "where is the evidence". Also, after reading the last 2 pages I had a few more thoughts. AND CMP, I will respond to you as well.
^ I don't know why you have such a hard on for me, but if you're going to try and make everyone think Im mafia, you might want to try responding to the answers I have given you instead of just saying
EAP IS MAFIA.
I also think it is funny how RDK, bacon AND Viking ARE SO SURE IM MAFIA. How are all three of you so certain in the first round?? No one knows anything now but the mafia and inspector.
EAP, to save me time and energy, and because some of the other players don't look back, I am just going to cite my previous reasons, then add some commentary below them. I have a big issue with this post though, since I previously said that no one knows anything except the mafia. I would say I am reasonably comfortable with voting you as mafia. Here is why:
the reason i haven't really responded is b/c i don't really have anything to say??? i guess you guys are always wanting people to say so much! sometimes i don't do that! geeze.
Thats not true. CSNTZ actually was one fo the lowest post counts in the last two first rounds he played in. Going back to my chart, your statement about you not posting is relatively correct, except for mafia 40, when you were tossed in the Day 1 runoff. That game, you flipped your poop, partially because you didnt like scrog, partially because you were defending yourself. You were a townie in that game. Since I have not charted past Mafia 39 yet, I haven't looked to any other game where that happened. Just using the 1 data point though, if you are a townie, you are acting very different.
viking i appreciate and respect all your "data" stuff. the thing is, you can't really ever count on that stuff.
Same thing I said to CSTNZ. I never said count on it. I just did the analysis. And just like I said to him, it seems strange that you are saying, thats great that you have data, but you should not really use it.
We are in a run-off by the way. Votes tend to stack in these.
You NEVER responded to this post. The above outlines past history, and in your case, you have a lot of history. Patterns tend to repeat, unless you are consciously trying to change them. In the case of Mafia 40, you freaked out before the runoff even started, and kept going from there. The thing is, why would you change your pattern as a townie? That makes no sense, since you know some of us go back and check it. Your response here was to again say ignore what viking says and act friendly. Which is the same tactic you used with fake inspector last game. And the game before, you became the super friendly townie. Both times you were mafia.
honestly viking you remind me of kdogg and i think your long posts are going to end up being too confusing and will be easy to hide behind.
it doesn't look like it will matter b/c all of you are so content with voting me straight off (i guess my fellow mafia hate me too huh??? they don't want to save me at all.)
EAP>>>>CTZ>>>>viking
This is almost a verbatim quote from last round when you were mafia:
Also, found this post interesting from last game too, since it is similar to what you are saying now:
I am flipping out dummy!!!! Last time I was just like, what? Little ole me???
But like I said before you can't argue with people who are just saying whatever they want with no real backage or evidence.
And poop face this week is hella busy for me, it's not like I've been crazy posting around the board and then saying I'm too busy for here.
[/quote]
Your response was to say you say the same things sometimes. Which is valid, except you said it while you were mafia. Also note, that by this point, EAP had 5 votes, and this is when CMP jumped in with the stop ganging up post. I was still on CSTNZ and was just asking questions, but instead of jumping on CSTNZ, who was already on EAP, he voted for me. Also, the say things the same thing could be true 1 time, but it is more suspicious when you do it a second time:
And tell us what you think. I have only been a townie in the games I've played, so I don't know how I would play different. However, you play is not matching when you were a townie.
Keep in mind my vote is still on CSTNZ, but I really want to hear and suspicions you have or at least a logic thread.
this is actually not true, but thanks for skewing the facts.....
i switched from viking BEFORE cmp put "focus" on viking. the only thing cmp did was see that the two of them were ganging up on me.
EAP, I never ganged up on you. You can look back and see, but I have never changed my vote off of you. All I did was ask a few questions, and look back at what you did last game when you were mafia. I did the same thing with CSTNZ.
ok, the truth is i'm totally regretting the fake inspector move last game bc now i can tell none of you trust me (which is legit). in a way i'm going to give myself a little pat on the back b/c it kind of means i did a good job when when i was mafia in the last games. OF COURSE i said stuff as mafia that i would say as a townie, that is the point.....that you do NOT want people to be able to tell when you are mafia vs when you are a townsperson. it IS about tricking people. i'm sorry i'm a good trickster. haha.
but on the flipside that means i am usually good at reading other people, so i'd like that chance to prove that (especially to the newer players) i am an asset to the townies, when i can keep my cool.
if you want me to post theories about the two people in the runoff with me RDK, i will. i do not know if either of them is guilty or not yet. we JUST started. if i had to pick one to go now, it would be viking only bc as i said he does remind me of kdogg. kdogg is a an amazing resource to the townies bc of his research/data/long windedness but he is also a force for the mafia bc it is so hard to muck through all of his posts. i feel like viking is similar (this is a compliment viking, if you know kdogg and how seriously he takes stuff).
does anyone else have questions for me?
I do not know who kdogg is, but I will take it as a compliment. I do take this seriously, and I really want to win again, since I am a very bad loser. There is a problem with the post though. It is basically the caveman lawyer defense.
"I'm just a simple caveman. Your posts frighten and confuse me, but what I can tell you is that viking is guilty"
Everything I have posted is factual, and I think CSTNZ has actually gone back to fact check on some of what I posted. The thing with facts is that if you lie and make it up, you are dead. Thats why I don't understand why posting facts makes me more suspicious. I would love to hear your theories on us though.
I am really considering changin my vote, pending what Bacon has to say about CSNTZ later today, and any other comments.
Roonector and CMP, I have no idea why you guys are still voting for me. I am neither the "bad camper" and CMP, I think I showed you how there was no factual discrepancy, and that there was no ganging up. The search function on this board is really bad, but go back and at the very least read through a few games of the 3 people in the runoff's posts. CSNTZ was in Mafia 45&46. he was a townie both times. I was in 46 and I was a townie. With EAP, you have a huge selection. She was mafia in 45&46, inspector in 44, and townie going back to 39 before that. Take a good look at Mafia 40 especially, when she was thrown in the runoff as a townie.
It will help you with trying to sort out who is who. Of course, half the time, there is no mafia at all in the runoff, but I think we may have at least 1 in this one. Just a matter of figuring out who.
This post is pretty self explanatory. At this point EAP was twisting what I was saying instead of addressing points. By the way, EAP I am pretty pissed you accused me of twisting, since I include your quotes when I post. When you claim I am twisting while addressing other people like Sarah and don't include what I actually say, it really pisses me off. Also note, that I have not switched even though votes were starting to stack up on me. When I did switch, the next post was EAP nulling her vote, which is a lesser form of taking her ball and going home like last game.
^ so you wouldn't be willing to let me stay around another round by changing your vote to viking?
I am including this because I don't understand why you want people to change their votes to just me. This really helped me to feel good about switching to you too. Then people started voting for me, and I went ahead. And you got quiet. Which brings us to my last post, which i will not post since this is getting long and there is still more to go. It is on page 9 if you need the reference.
Bacon that is so whack. You guys have been all over me and answered NOTHING ANYONE HAS ASKED YOU.
Nic, what have I exactly done to change your mind. You realize at this point it looks extremely likely you are trying to save Viking. Please ask me any questions you have. So you not think it is weird RDK and bacon have been all over me like crazy but not questioned Viking or constanza at all??? Please only vote for me if you really believe I am guilty. I don't think you do.
I'd also like to appeal to duddits. You said so yourself, I am not that suspicious. Please reconsider.
I'm Nulling my vote until the deadline.
EAP>>>>null
This is the same thing she did when votes stacked on her last time. With regards to RDK and bacon, I cannot say why they haven't asked me questions. My guess is that I have put all of my thoughts out there for you to take a look at, which is a lot more than you have done. You have not made a single logical argument as to why I should die specifically. That is the biggest point against you so far in my book, aside from the slip up last night. Also, you completely ignored that portion of my last post. That lends credence to claim in my opinion.
3 - RDK is going to be accused of being mafia with me because he is on the same track I am right now. I think it is likely that EAP is mafia. I also think it is likely that one of the first people to believe her story is too, which would mean CMP. As far as Nic, he was my voting partner to start, so I can't say one way or another. He has been very quiet. If I had to pick a 3rd, I would pick SFA as the one hiding. It will be someone who voted for one of the other 2 in order to hide and more likely someone who voted for CSTNZ. SFA is very experienced, and let CSTNZ run trying to protect him simiilar to what Mike D did to me last game. It could be sarah too, since the "i'm sick" or "i'm busy" defense has been used before to hide mafia, but I think it is more likely that is was SFA
4 - Remember that based on how Phi did the selections, Nic had the greatest odds, SFA had the second greatest. Duddits was the true nuetral. Everyone after had declining odds. This does not mean that they are automatically guilt. Just a lot more likely to be mafia.
So all of a sudden that small probability = "a lot more likely". And why would you be ok with being out? That seems like something you would never hear from a townie, especially one who says they take this game seriously and really wants to win. It's just not adding up for me.
The reason I quoted point 3 from you up there, is to show how much you're throwing around every other name out there to try and get some focus off you. (In my eyes. As you said, you've read up heavily on this game, so you'd certainly know that lobbing other names up in the air can help take attention away from you.)
Also, RDK, you ignored my question on page 7...again.
One last thing before I leave for work. RDK, I don't believe you ever responded to this...just a small gap in your theory, but I'd like to hear your reasoning.
And the only thing that has seemed to remain constant this round, is RDK and Viking leaving each other alone, or encouraging others to switch off one another.
This is my two cents, and the reason my vote is staying the same.[/quote]
CMP, I am not seeing anything suspicious with RDK. Yes, he is particularly focused on EAP, but EAP is suspicious, so it is ok in my book. With regards to why I am ok getting killed, I was going to post a post from last game, but this is a long enough post as it is. I think I explained pretty well why I was ok with it in my last post, but let me recap for you. I think we have a good idea who the mafia are. The townies only advantage is numbers to start the game. We lose that advantage quickly if 2 townies are killed in round 1, but it is a very powerful advantage at the open. The style I have chosen to play is to shine a bright light on individuals, and force everyone to post. It gives everyone more information to look through and pick apart. Last game, I was told that I was playing poorly, but the townies got the first 1,2,3 victory in more than a year. Surf may have been luck, but everyone had to post more and say more. I think I have accomplished that in this round, ans as I said, I am ok with dying since there is a lot out there for people to pick through.
The whole point is avoiding this Round 1 we cant determine anything. If we don't try and kill a mafia member in the first round, we lose the advantage we have in numbers, and we are fighting an uphill battle the rest of the way. This makes the inspector's job easier and it makes it easier for them to hide.
final notes - I have no idea why CSTNZ is so focused on saving other people. First SFA, now EAP. I am not saying it is suspicious, just interested.
- There is NO need for another runoff. Someone should die tonight so we can move on.
Viking's long post about being ready to die sounds more like Mafia than EAP fighting to stay alive.
Also the more I think about it, EAP isn't throwing names around, which is normally something Mafia would do in a subtle manner to take the spotlight off of them and attempt to place it on someone else. Mafia tend to want to point the finger elsewhere, whereas a Townie will want to defend themself against being or doing something suspicious and plea their honesty as being a Townie.
The one game where I was Mafia and was in the runoff I did the same thing. I was ready to go out so as to protect the other two Mafia.
Bravo, eap, bravo. Your null has worked twice now.
Duddits, please do not look into trends. I was okay with getting voted off last game in the first round against Surf because I didn't think it would hurt us much. You also voted for me the game I went after phil because of why you think Viking is suspicious. EAP is experienced of course she is going to play a townie "trend".
Viking's long post about being ready to die sounds more like Mafia than EAP fighting to stay alive. As soon as the votes started to shift towards Viking he seemed to lessen his fight in the runoff to stay alive. His defense is that he has provided nothing but facts, however a Mafia can do just the same.
Also the more I think about it, EAP isn't throwing names around, which is normally something Mafia would do in a subtle manner to take the spotlight off of them and attempt to place it on someone else. Mafia tend to want to point the finger elsewhere, whereas a Townie will want to defend themself against being or doing something suspicious and plea their honesty as being a Townie.
So in essence I read EAP doing nothing but defend herself in the runoff while not trying to put pressure on any one other player (townie trend) and viking first pointing to several different possible Mafia and then in essence laying down on his own sword when the votes sway towards him.
The one game where I was Mafia and was in the runoff I did the same thing. I was ready to go out so as to protect the other two Mafia.
Duddits >>> EAP >>> Viking
Sorry Duddits. I have not lessened the fight. Read the end of my last post regarding why I am ok. You posted while I was typing and researching. Hopefully, you are willing to reconsider your vote.
I'm not really interested in saving EAP, I just never found her particularly suspicious. It's clear right now that she is going to be voted off and I just hope that we weren't swindled by the mafia. I think if I was trying to save her, I would be making a bigger stink. Really I just want this round to be over and when someone brought up having ANOTHER run off my blood started to boil. It's clear now there will be no second runoff, so I'm cool with whatever right now. I think you are the more suspicious of the two, viking, but I don't really find either of you CRAZY suspicious and honestly I think the three of us in the runoff now are among the least suspicious ones in the game so far.
I've totally abandoned the SFA thing. You may think it was me trying to "save" him, but really what it was was me avoiding him being going till we knew he was mafia. The hardest thing about round one is you have the least evidence, so I'd want to save SFA until we had some reason to believe he was suspicious. That is all. I'm going to my friends house now to work on some musics, hopefully when I get back this will all be over and we can move on to the night time so the inspector can get a guess in and we can move forward a little bit with things.