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I went thorough and read all of Abra's posts with the mindset that she was inspector and here is where I am at.
Abra called out RDK, Nick, and Surf to get the discussion going, as these three had only posted their original vote.
With Viking Surfbum, & SFA currently in runnoff, she changes her vote from Viking (her original voting partner) to RDK to "see what happens" and puts RDK as a third runnoff. RDK quickly changes his vote off of me to Surf to save his butt.
Later, Abra states she is fine with her vote on RDK. The RDK voters are Abra, Phi, and I. Phi then calls out Abra and I as mafia.
To me, this is what it looks like - if Abra was inspector, by what she posted, most likely had RDK's name. Phi was pushing back at Abra a little bit which leads me to believe that Phi and RDK would be working together. That is how I see the mafia kill. With that . .
BTW, if it doesn't evolve me I left out all the stuff on Phi and RDK because specking for others in this game isn't wise. Also, I'm not going to spend all my time going over a theory that only exist in your head. Sorry. I honestly wouldn't be able to do a discent job if I tried.
It's not a bad theory but I think you are thinking way way to hard.
If you don't like how I play, thats fine, but don't say I am playing poorly because there is no good method of being a townie right now, since we keep losing.
I'll repeat what I said before. One of the reasons the townies are on such a losing streak is because the first rounds have turned into the type of witch-hunts that this one has. All it does is give the mafia cannon fodder, makes it harder for the inspector to make any sense of anything and cause paranoia and bad decision making amongst the townies.
but if my guess on the mafia is correct, then surf is most likely innocent, since those 3 are the ones that really built all the suspicion around him.
I voted for him base on mutual suspicion brought up by several other players. I never once pushed or build a case to vote him off. Overstatement much? And LOL at you talking about building suspicion around others.
People are going to say that this looks like a mafia attempt to save surf, but the mafia usually would let their own die this early so they dont reveal themselves.
There is no "usually" in the first round. The mafia have plenty of ways they can save one of their own in the first round. As I've said before, mafia have been voted off in the first round like three times in twenty games. Two of those times it was because the inspector came out in the first round.
SFA was claiming that everyone was quiet while I was away from the game for the evening and my vote was on him, but that was not true.
NO! This is what is not true. I never said anything like this. Why are you trying so hard to paint me in a bad light?
He spent 2 posts telling me I didn't want him as an enemy. In fact, he was the only one nervous of going into a runoff.
I never said anything treating like that???? I said I'm a good townie to have on your side. Then i went on to explain that it rare that a mafia member gets put into the runoff that early to we should think about switching things up. That doesn't make mean I'm nervous. It means I'm playing the freaking game going off of my experience.
Also, phi and RDK had gone quiet at this point. I switched my vote, and SFA immediatly jumped on Surf who had his voting partner on him, and some minor suspicion over his not posting
What does this prove? If people switch a vote within a two hour time frame they are obviously a bad guy?
4 - SFA only changes his vote to null once I got tossed into the runoff. Then phi, who was already voting for me asks for someone else to vote for me, which would have cancelled the runoff again. At this point, SFA submerges to lurk...
I changed my vote to null because I didn't want Surf voted strait off. Pretty simple. I didn't "submerge to lurk." I submerged to not really caring about the game because of all the useless First Round head hunting. I'm at the point were I'm tired of warning people. Hell I ever warned people about it the last two times I was mafia.
But more so, if my guess is right, it was an outcome the mafia could control with the SFA ace in the hole. If he put the vote on Surf, both he and RDK would be voting for him, instead of moving people down that path inconspicuously. Also note that both RDK and Phi were online for the entirity of this period both by their posts in other boards and their little back and forth.
I can't speak for the other two but your wrong about me and you are thinking way to hard on this. Being mafia isn't that complicated this early on. I guarantee you that when the game is over you can look back and see the mafia weren't the ones doing all the crazy vote switching in round 1.
Protip: Mafia don't have to just use Inforoo to communicate. I've always used Facebook and my cellphone with people I know personally like Mike and Abra.
7 - RDK then vote matches phi because it would have been suspicious if he didn't, moving them both into a runoff...except for the SFA final vote, and surf at 2.
Mafia would never do this. Not ever! There was absolutely no need for them to vote for each other at that stage of the game. Mafia vote for mafia as a last resort or in a situation that they are 80% sure they can get out unharmed.
SFA goes quiet again.
Because I lost interest again. Also, sense you are reading back maybe you should have noticed by now that I don't say much in the first round.
SFA makes a perfect coach to Phi and RDK is the least suspicious. That is my mafia trio until someone can convince me otherwise.
I'm not mafia but if I were mafia with those two then have of the things that happened in the first round wouldn't have happened the way they did. Anyone that has played with me can attest to that. I'm a much more lowkey player until I see it's time to strike.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY Too drunk to think critically, but I wanted to leave you all with a little video in honor of today's holiday! Happy St. Patrick's Day! Death to the Mafia!
I went thorough and read all of Abra's posts with the mindset that she was inspector and here is where I am at.
Abra called out RDK, Nick, and Surf to get the discussion going, as these three had only posted their original vote.
With Viking Surfbum, & SFA currently in runnoff, she changes her vote from Viking (her original voting partner) to RDK to "see what happens" and puts RDK as a third runnoff. RDK quickly changes his vote off of me to Surf to save his butt.
Later, Abra states she is fine with her vote on RDK. The RDK voters are Abra, Phi, and I. Phi then calls out Abra and I as mafia.
To me, this is what it looks like - if Abra was inspector, by what she posted, most likely had RDK's name. Phi was pushing back at Abra a little bit which leads me to believe that Phi and RDK would be working together. That is how I see the mafia kill. With that . .
Mike D >> Phi
lol you DO realize I was the sole reason RDK was put into that runoff right?
I went thorough and read all of Abra's posts with the mindset that she was inspector and here is where I am at.
Abra called out RDK, Nick, and Surf to get the discussion going, as these three had only posted their original vote.
With Viking Surfbum, & SFA currently in runnoff, she changes her vote from Viking (her original voting partner) to RDK to "see what happens" and puts RDK as a third runnoff. RDK quickly changes his vote off of me to Surf to save his butt.
Later, Abra states she is fine with her vote on RDK. The RDK voters are Abra, Phi, and I. Phi then calls out Abra and I as mafia.
To me, this is what it looks like - if Abra was inspector, by what she posted, most likely had RDK's name. Phi was pushing back at Abra a little bit which leads me to believe that Phi and RDK would be working together. That is how I see the mafia kill. With that . .
Mike D >> Phi
You could be right about RDK but why vote Phi, if the best indication points to RDK? That's a little strange. I mean. How in the world could Phi and RDK be mafia together? What kind of idiot mafia players would put each other in a runoff like that? It makes no sense. One could absolutely be mafia but I highly doubt it's both at this point.
Edit:Typo
Last Edit: Mar 18, 2012 1:43:07 GMT -5 by Deleted - Back to Top
I've learned that there are very few, if any moves/votes the mafia won't do. From my perspective, it does make sense, and is at least something to consider. I am not saying its foolproof and my vote is not necessarily concrete. A couple of my games ago I started a round similar to this, as in voting based on how I saw the kills. I was killed by mafia that night and surely enough 2 out of 3 of my list that round was mafia. That was the first time I really felt like I grasped the townie roll.
Taking what I said in my previous post, being called mafia by Phi, and knowing I'm a townie, thats my best indication right there.
That being said, it does not impact the reasoning I put together. I did not bend any facts. Facts are facts, and you can read them just like I did.
I didn't mean it as in you were purposefully doing it but it's kind of hard to take you seriously when you keep making factual errors. Then you expect us to believe you on how others play in other games and it somehow matching the behavior here. You can't even keep things strait about simple things. Why should I trust your judgement over anyone else and therefore why should I let you walk into this game and throw down the gauntlet, calling out three people as mafia in the first round??
You know who does that? Townies that help the mafia win. There is your simple Mafia history lesson of the day from someone that has seen it happen from every role in the game.
In the middle of the first round you said something about knowing you were dead and that you had a target on your back. How dramatic!.If you are a townie, let me go ahead and let you know. You, my friend, aren't going anywhere anytime soon. You are a cat's paw at this point and you don't even know it.
I just read them through the view of Phi as a mafia member, and looked at the patterns. A mentor of mine just told me that every thing you look at in life is like a ball. The ball is a ball but because it has an infinite number of sides, (or in this case, 11) you will always see something different than the person next to you, and the person who can see through someone else's eyes has the advantage
Nice saying. Unless you are the inspector it doesn't apply to you. But it's a nice saying.
So as inspector, you get one name. I am fairly confident about Phi, and if I consider that my one name, how would my assumptions be any different than yours from last game?
Because I wasn't making assumptions? I never took into account when people were online, I didn't look at vote switches that could be saving or setting anyone up. I looked at the actual evidence and thought about what made the most logical sense. That's why it's important not to mudsling and throw accusations around so early in the game.
As I said, until someone comes up with a better theory, I am sticking with mine. You will NOT change my mind just by saying you are not mafia, and trying to twist what I said. If you can do the same research and give me a different view of the facts that makes more sense, I am willing to listen.
Yawn. I never twisted anything you. And I frankly don't care about changing your mind it's clearly a waste of time. If you can't see how illogical your idea of PHI and RDK being mafia together then I don't really see a point in talking with you.
Believe me if you want. I've played enough to know that you are a tool for the mafia, if your a townie that is. You can tell me I was right after the mafia win the game.
I've learned that there are very few, if any moves/votes the mafia won't do.From my perspective, it does make sense, and is at least something to consider. I am not saying its foolproof and my vote is not necessarily concrete.
It's all relative to the situation. There would be absolutely no strategic value in mafia voting two of it's members into a runoff. Maybe later in the game to distance themselves, like I did with Abra and Bonzai two games back. BUT we had a clear endgame in mind. What we are talking about here is an absurdly reckless move that served no purpose.
Thank back to when You, NBF and I were mafia. We voted the same way all three rounds, which was a little risky but we were afforded that opportunity because of events within that game. Namely Lowerdeck acting a fool.
There is a huge difference in risky maneuvers and suicidal ones. If you look back, you'll notice neither of them where the deciding votes that saved RDK. I don't see a game plan were a risk like this would ever be taken. And I'm drawing a blank on ever seeing it happen in any game. One member maybe but TWO? Nah, I don't by it at all.
A couple of my games ago I started a round similar to this, as in voting based on how I saw the kills. I was killed by mafia that night and surely enough 2 out of 3 of my list that round was mafia. That was the first time I really felt like I grasped the townie roll.
Was this when I was ref and NBF put Duddits in the runoff. Huge difference. She did that on the first page of the tread and made it clear that see didn't want to because it was his first game. They had him out of harms way in no time without raising and eyebrow from anyone. Like I said earlier. Mafia will do it in the first round when they know they can get the person out of harms way. That is far from what happened here.
Taking what I said in my previous post, being called mafia by Phi, and knowing I'm a townie, that's my best indication right there.
You gotta do, what you gotta do. All I'm saying is that I would be shocked if both of them are mafia. It just seems RDK would be your obvious vote since most of your post was about the Abra whack.
SFA, I said I would keep an open mind reading anything you put together. While I don't agree with some of your critiques of my theory, and think you reached a few wrong conclusions about me, I feel that your explanations were enough to make me rethink if you were the 3rd member. That does not mean I think you are innocent. As you stated, thinking anyone is innocent is how the townies lose, but enough to make me think that there is a possibility for a different 3rd mafia.
To date, RDK and Phi have only point out how insane the idea of them being mafia is, and and not really done any explaining of why their guesses are mafia, so I am going to stick with them for the moment, until someone comes up with a better theory. As Mike D said, there is nothing too insane for the mafia to try.
And as a quick note to LLL about scientific method, that works great in a lab, but in the real world, the scientific method breaks down. One of my degrees is in science, and prior to founding my own company, I was in charge of development for a multinational company, with scientists and engineers working for me. It is actually interesting, because I got a lot of the same comments from them as I have gotten this game. You are moving too fast, guessing too much, etc, etc, but good being the enemy of perfect, we were right more often than not. Say 60-70% of the time. The difference was that we were doing 3x the amount of development for the same money in the same time frame, which means we were 2x+ more productive than my counterparts at other companies, who followed traditional methods, and brought to market 90%+ of their projects.
Not an absolute correlation here, but the method of sitting back has not helped the townies all that much. The last time we won was last August, so maybe it is time for a new strategy?
And finally, SFA, with regards to facts, I already admitted I was wrong, and that I wrote them half a bottle deep in bourbon prior to St. Pat's. I believe others have made similar mistakes in prior games before while drinking. All I can say is Mea Culpa, and that my reasoned posts were done without drinking. Also, sorry for posting the video last night. Wanted to post, but after the night prior, I didn't trust what I was going to say, which was a good thing after reading what I was going to say.
So, all of that said, I am sticking where I was last round until he can do better than I'm not mafia.
Oh, and by the way, Phi has repeated several times how insane it would be for him and RDK to vote for each other. IT could just be actually thinking it is insane, or he could be thinking that is just may be insane enough to work since no one would think of us doing it. Just a thought, SFA since he has said it several times. (I am not going back to count right now)
maybe this will teach you a lesson. im not even worried about the fact that you might be a townie, you're hurting us more than helping us.
If he IS a townie, the mafia are most certainly going to save him for last. His wild theories are just making us all go nuts on each other, and the mafia are just sitting back and loving it. However I can't in good conscience vote for someone who I don't think is mafia.
Viking, the fact is that Mafia try to BREAK their previous patterns, so you are not going to get what you think you are out of over-analyzing previous games. Just look at whats going on now! It's right in front of our eyes and we can't even see it because we're all so distracted.
Agreed that at this point looking back does not help. I already admitted error for my comment on SFA. In fact, I will even go so far as saying I made a mistake looking back that late in the first round.
I will stand by I wrote about phi because that early in the game you can draw inferences from posting style. But overall I agree with you, hence why my post count is going way down, and I am spending time watching and trying to learn. But I.do agree with you, and you will not see any info from previous games at this point unless there is a glaring parallel.
first of all, i would like to say that even though last game i was mafia and sat back while you guys fought, if you look back to basically all my other games (i've only been mafia one other time besides last game in the 20 something games i've played) as a townie, i am usually quiet until someone starts accusing me or it gets towards the end of the game and i have more to go on.
i find that i do better if i sit back and read what people are saying instead of instigating etc. just b/c my townie style is different than others doesn't mean anything, SFA.
here are all of abra's posts (minus one about congrats baby bit):
I love the tallies and so glad you are moderating this round Fawn. May your feet feel back to normal today. It's the weekend so I guess discussion is slow. Surf, you awake out there?
I'm tempted to change my vote for a third in the runnoff. Curious Abra, why are you concerned with Surf?
Trying to get some people talking without calling people out as mafia. Everyone had said something other than the initial votes except for RDK, Nick and Surf. Surf and I were in the the last game I played together and he was always talking so just thought I'd poke a little, see if any of the quiet ones were alive.
I'm guessing we don't have any mafia in the run off or they would be freaking out right about now really trying to protect either each other or themselves. It's sooo quiet
I really don't think Wlviking is mafia but it's really too early to know who is and isn't or even have any good leads. For now I'm changing my vote just to see what happens.
I must have missed your questions. I changed my vote off of my voting partner one to see if it might stir up some protective voting and I believe it has. I'm not mafia at all and trying not to be a dumbass that gets whacked by calling every person in the game mafia.
I don't think RDK and Phi would put each other in the run off even if they were trying to distance one from another however that is what SFA did with me last time I played is basically killed me to save the game for mafia. There is enough people to hide a vote in and really you can take anything someone's said and twist it around to make them seem like mafia or townies. Is it possible that Viking is mafia along with surf and he's posting so much to save a fellow mafia? You are going so hard after Phi it makes me suspicious. I mean, I think I'd look at other players too if I were going to do that much research. I'd like to hear from some other people before I change my vote and we have a few hours left.
the people abra called out were: surf, phi, rdk and viking.
she kept her vote on rdk despite saying that "is is possible viking is mafia along with surf and he's posting so much to save a fellow mafia?".
the mafia could have killed her either to make RDK look guilty or b/c they felt that she might be inspector with the above about viking/surf quote (and calling out surf before that....he might have been our first mafia down??).
if i was mafia, why would i vote last and then vote for someone who doesn't really have a chance to be voted off, when i could have easily stacked a vote on people that already have them.
unless you and viking are mafia with me and i don't want to kill you?? huh???
come on phil. stop making accusations without any real basis. that's not helping anyone. are you just going to keep changing your lists until you've named everyone except yourself?
SFA, I said I would keep an open mind reading anything you put together. While I don't agree with some of your critiques of my theory, and think you reached a few wrong conclusions about me, I feel that your explanations were enough to make me rethink if you were the 3rd member. That does not mean I think you are innocent. As you stated, thinking anyone is innocent is how the townies lose, but enough to make me think that there is a possibility for a different 3rd mafia.
To date, RDK and Phi have only point out how insane the idea of them being mafia is, and and not really done any explaining of why their guesses are mafia, so I am going to stick with them for the moment, until someone comes up with a better theory. As Mike D said, there is nothing too insane for the mafia to try.
And as a quick note to LLL about scientific method, that works great in a lab, but in the real world, the scientific method breaks down. One of my degrees is in science, and prior to founding my own company, I was in charge of development for a multinational company, with scientists and engineers working for me. It is actually interesting, because I got a lot of the same comments from them as I have gotten this game. You are moving too fast, guessing too much, etc, etc, but good being the enemy of perfect, we were right more often than not. Say 60-70% of the time. The difference was that we were doing 3x the amount of development for the same money in the same time frame, which means we were 2x+ more productive than my counterparts at other companies, who followed traditional methods, and brought to market 90%+ of their projects.
Not an absolute correlation here, but the method of sitting back has not helped the townies all that much. The last time we won was last August, so maybe it is time for a new strategy?
WLV >>> Phi
No poop dude. Guess when my last game was. Guess what my record is in the Mafia games I've played. Guess why. Human behavior is highly predictable.
Also, I commend you on your wonderful business workings. But they aren't helping you in Mafia. You are either Mafia and doing a great job of taking on the part of the stirrer of shit who gets the townies defeated these last games, or you are the new LD-esque suicidal/homicidal townie.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.