I'm honestly pretty much all ready to go to Roo, I'm just passing the time by entertaining myself watching you all try to make something of weather forecasts a week out.
I asked a meteorologist yesterday and he said (as someone did on the last page) that you can't get an accurate idea of precipitation until about 2 days out. So even when you leave for Roo Wednesday or Thursday, you still won't know how the weather will be on Saturday or Sunday for certain.
So all of your predictions are pointless. But don't let me rain on your parade.
Post by Roo'adelphia on Jun 5, 2013 21:33:42 GMT -5
Today I went with the Accuweather Forecast which is going for no rain all weekend compared to the other 2 which said look forward to rain everyday. Just checking it out but even the day of I dont believe what the weather guy is gonna tell me.
Here is the 7 day forecast that gets us to Wednesday. It hasn't been too bad here yet, but looks like it could start getting warmer next week, and if it rains any, it will be pretty humid. Here's to hoping for low 90s with a quick shower Friday...
Here's another local forecast that gets us to Thursday...it has rained off and on in Nashville all day, but I don't think it has rained as much in Manchester. I live about 20 miles from the farm but work in downtown Nashville, and the weather has been pretty different between the 2 as far as rain goes...looking pretty good though!
i have been watching the forecast by accuweather as soon as i was able to see the 13th on there. it started out low 80's with 30-60% chance of rain, then a few days later it changed to mid 90's with very little rain, and over the last few days it has slowly crept back down to mid 80's with a stormy thursday, cloudless friday and overcast sunday.
i could care less about rain, but mid 80's would be tits mcgillicutty.
I prefer wunderground.com to all of these other sites for my weather needs. And if anyone wants to be DIY about it, you can view model data here and make your own predictions: weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/
Post by Paroxysm714 on Jun 8, 2013 10:50:52 GMT -5
True, sometimes you can change the local station around but sometimes the site's stupid and won't let you. I find Weather Underground sometimes has trouble getting the daily high temp right (they can be a little too conservative with daytime heating predictions), but usually their precipitation forecasts are better.
Post by Paroxysm714 on Jun 8, 2013 10:57:43 GMT -5
Yeah Saturday was weird. We left GZA at 3:45am or so to see Wet Hot American Summer in the Cinema Tent, and when we emerged at the end of the movie it was no longer dark and no longer dry. That was kinda surreal.
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX...BUT RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC TO JUSTIFY ANY MORE THAN A 20 POP AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW WARM WE GET ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MEX MOS SHOWS 93 FOR BNA. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL FOR REACHING OUR FIRST 90+ DEGREE DAY OF THIS YEAR. OUR NORMAL FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IS MAY 28...SO WE ARE DUE. THE LATEST FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD IS JULY 5 IN 1893.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE WITH ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND HOTTER WX NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME 90+ DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED.
tl;dr: dry and hot tues and wed, possible thunderstorms on thursday followed by a hot weekend. Sounds a lot like 2009
here is a 10-day forecast from another Nashville station...low 90s will be great for me...It hasn't been super hot here at all this year, so maybe it won't hurt us too bad since 'roo is a week later than normal this year
FWIW, it rained pretty good yesterday with thunder and lightning as well. Guess the people at the CMA Fest weren't too happy, but they had their nice hotel rooms to ride it out in...
Edit: I really don't want to have to set up camp in the rain though...Not a good way to start the weekend....