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i see what you are saying SFA and i appreciate it.
the only flaws i see is that a smart mafia, would employ some of those exact strategies you are saying......why not make it look like a "townsperson" buddy up? why not call out your own mafia?
I completely agree. I appreciate the work that SFA put into analyzing all of the posts like that, but Mafia's not a new game. Mafia members know what is going to be analyzed (the ones who've played or followed it for awhile anyways), so they are going to purposefully do or not do some of those things to mislead us.
It seems like this might be pretty difficult to figure out the 3rd. Here's to hoping we see some mistakes soon
the only flaws i see is that a smart mafia, would employ some of those exact strategies you are saying......why not make it look like a "townsperson" buddy up? why not call out your own mafia?
Sure they would. I did it last game when I was mafia. The question is why would they do it this early on? If we didn't know they are were mafia then these aren't that suspicious of moves. I think they were pretty strait forward mafia votes to move innocent people into the runoffs.
Has LD forgotten that he's playing Mafia? He's posting all over the boards just not here. He is the only one that hasn't chimed in since SFA outted Phi & Nic. This isn't normal LD, is it?
I'm lurking. I've already said what I needed. Surf's killer will be avenged in blood.
Has LD forgotten that he's playing Mafia? He's posting all over the boards just not here. He is the only one that hasn't chimed in since SFA outted Phi & Nic. This isn't normal LD, is it?
I'm lurking. I've already said what I needed. Surf's killer will be avenged in blood.
Are you actually reading everything and just choosing to ignore my direct question to you... twice?
Well I have a theory right now but I'm going to wait until the whack is over to reveal it. Hopefully I don't get whacked
I have something worked up as well and I'm unsure about whether I should post it or not. I almost hope that I get whacked so you guys don't get mislead into thinking I'm guilty.
Post by popsicle sarah on Mar 4, 2012 15:04:07 GMT -5
I've been sitting here trying to analyze the votes and while this is admittedly not my strong suit, I'm giving it a try anyways.
Since round 1 ended suddenly and never matured into the normal run-off situation, it might be helpful to look the vote changes from the end of round 1 to the beginning of round 2.
These are everyone's final votes in Round 1 before the round was ended:
Surf >>> Scrog Sarah >>> Phi EAP >>> Duddits SFA >>> LD Duddits >>> EAP CST >>> Nic LD >>> Phi Scrog >>> Nic Phi >>> LD Nic >>> Scrog
Let's compare these with everyone's initial votes in Round 2:
Sarah >>> Phi Nic >>> Scrog CST >>> EAP Scrog >>> Nic EAP >>> CST LD >>> Scrog Phi >>> CST Duddits >>> Nic SFA >>> LD
Players who kept their last round 1 vote the same to start round 2:
Sarah >>> Phi Nic >>> Scrog Scrog >>> Nic SFA >>> LD
Players who changed their round 1 vote to start round 2:
CST >>> EAP (was Nic in round 1 - gave explanation for changing) EAP >>> CST (was Duddits in round 1 - reciprocal vote) LD >>> Scrog (was Phi in round 1 - gave no reason for changing and was the first to put two votes on someone) Phi >>> CST (was LD in round 1 - gave an explanation for changing and was the 2nd to put two votes on someone) Duddits >>> Nic (was EAP in round 1 - gave no reason for the switch, but likely didn't want to stack on EAP)
I'm not sure what to make of this, if anything. This info alone doesn't do anything to point to the 3rd mafia, but maybe someone can see something in it.
I'm only guess would be because I already had one vote and it's his only chance to save himself is if other people vote for me too. I don't understand why LD threw a vote at me to start. I was reallllly curious as to who Phi would vote for since I thought his vote would be the only vote for someone else and it could've been very telling. But LD ruined that. Thanks LD.
Oh also I didn't have any theory, I was hoping by a longshot saying that would get me whacked instead of SFA so he'd get one more round to guess. My theory now is that LD is #3. I find it curious that he would go after someone who is making it easier to keep track of everyone's behavior here rather than eliminate the other known mafia, and he didn't even give an explanation why. He's also been trying to put attention on Sarah since the very beginning.